Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
